Start from your flat pace, then add the climb cost
The honest way to estimate a trail finish is to start from a pace you actually know, the one you hold on the road or a flat path for a similar distance, and then add what the hills are going to cost you. That keeps your engine (your flat pace) separate from the terrain tax (the vert). It is how runners who have done a few of these think about pacing a hilly race.
This tool uses a grade penalty of roughly 18 seconds per mile for every 100 feet of climb per mile. So a course with 200 feet of gain per mile adds about 36 seconds per mile to your flat pace, and a nasty 400 feet per mile adds over a minute. The penalty gets capped at the steep end, because past a point you are hiking, not running, and a straight-line penalty would make the slowdown look worse than it is.