The effort dial and the alertness dial
There are two payoffs and they matter at different times. The first is the perceived-effort one: caffeine makes a given pace feel less brutal, which is most of why it helps you push in the hard middle of a race. The second, and honestly the bigger one for ultras, is the alertness payoff. When you are deep into a long race and sleep-deprived, caffeine keeps your head clear, your reaction time up, and your decision-making from falling apart. Military sleep-loss studies are striking here: caffeine held soldiers’ vigilance and reaction time up through a sleepless night while the placebo group fell off a cliff.
So think of caffeine as two dials, not one. Early in a race you might want a touch off the effort dial. Late at night, deep in a 100 miler, you are mostly reaching for the alertness dial, and that is the single most valuable thing caffeine does for a trail runner. It is not making you fitter. It is keeping the runner you already are from shutting down.