22:07UNDER GOAL
⏵ OBJECTIVE · A-RACE · WESTERN STATES 100
Sunday, 13 September 2026. In 10 weeks. Projecting 22:07 on your own pace-by-grade, 1:23 under your 23:30 goal and 7:53 inside the cutoff.
View the courseDemo · read-only
⏵ PROJECTED RACE
GOAL
23:30
RACE DAY
22:07
PLANNING RANGE · 21:14–23:01 (±4%)
A rough planning window, not a forecast interval.
MOVING TIME
21:34
AID DWELL
0:33
CUTOFF MARGIN · 7:53 INSIDE
DIST · DISTANCE
100.2
miles
VERT · ELEVATION
18,000
ft of climb
GOAL · TARGET TIME
23:30
hh:mm
CUT · CUTOFF
30:00
hh:mm
⏵ COUNTDOWN
A-RaceT−73to the start line · 05:00 start
⏵ HOT SPOTS
WHERE THE WORK LIVES
DIFFICULTY MIX
- Easy
- 1.0 mi· 1%
- Moderate
- 33.0 mi· 33%
- Hard
- 49.2 mi· 49%
- Severe
- 17.0 mi· 17%
Hardest mile
+20.6%
mile 2.0–3.0
Steepest pitch
+28.6%
mile 2.0–3.0 · 165 ft sustained
Biggest climb
+1,085 ft
in mile 2.0–3.0
⏵ ROUTE MAP
THE LINE FROM ABOVE
The course trace, grade-colored. Scrub the profile below to track your spot on the line.
CLIMBDESCDARKER = STEEPER
⏵ COURSE PROFILE
THE TERRAIN
100.2 mi · 17,337 ft up · 22,815 ft down · 966–8,898 ft
Vert Gain
17,337ftBIG CLIMBING
22,815 ft loss8,898 ft max7.6% avg grade
Grade<3%3–6%6–10%10+%
⏵ PACING STRATEGY
HOW THE RACE PROJECTS
Per-segment paces from the athlete's own runs at matching grades, degraded mile by mile for ultra fatigue.
EST · PROJECTED FINISH
22:07
hh:mm
RUN · MOVING TIME
21:34
hh:mm
AID · AID DWELL
0:33
hh:mm
VS GOAL · DELTA TO TARGET
1:23
under goal
CUTOFF MARGIN · 7:53 INSIDE
⏵ AID STATION SCHEDULE
StationMileElapsedETA
- Lyon Ridge10.32:237:23a
- Duncan Canyon24.65:0610:06a
- Robinson Flat30.36:1711:17a
- Michigan Bluff47.89:482:48p
- Foresthill55.711:484:48p
- Rucky Chucky62.013:356:35p
- Green Gate78.016:519:51p
- No Hands Bridge93.520:361:36a +1d
⏵ YOUR PACE BY GRADE
THE FRESH-LEG BASELINE
Median pace bucketed by average grade. Empty bands borrow from the nearest populated one.
GRADE BANDRANGERUNSMEDIAN PACE
- GRADEDescentRANGE<-2%RUNS30MEDIAN8:30/mi
- GRADEFlat / rollingRANGE-2 to 2%RUNS33MEDIAN9:24/mi
- GRADEEasy climbRANGE2 to 5%RUNS29MEDIAN12:36/mi
- GRADEHard climbRANGE5 to 10%RUNS27MEDIAN17:48/mi
- GRADESevere climbRANGE10%+RUNS21MEDIAN24:30/mi
⏵ FUELING & HYDRATION
WHAT TO CARRY, PER HOUR
Tuned to a 23:30 finish. Carbs scale with duration; fluid and sodium hold an hourly floor. Long ultra: 80–100 g/h only works with a trained gut, ramp in training.
CARBS · PER HOUR
90 g
80-100 g range
FLUID · PER HOUR
0.66 L
baseline (no heat)
SODIUM · PER LITER
500 mg
7,720 mg total
CAFF · TOTAL
200 mg
100 mg pre-race
⏵ RACE TOTALS
2,115 g carbs15.4 L fluid7,720 mg sodium
⏵ CARRY BETWEEN AID STATIONS
- Lyon Ridge0.0–10.3 mi225 g · 1.70 L
- Duncan Canyon10.3–24.6 mi338 g · 2.36 L
- Robinson Flat24.6–30.3 mi133 g · 0.94 L
- Michigan Bluff30.3–47.8 mi405 g · 2.89 L
- Foresthill47.8–55.7 mi170 g · 1.30 L
- Rucky Chucky55.7–62.0 mi133 g · 1.04 L
- Green Gate62.0–78.0 mi358 g · 2.64 L
- No Hands Bridge78.0–93.5 mi352 g · 2.56 L
⏵ COURSE BRIEFING
THE READ
What this race looks like, how you're likely to handle it, and where it'll bite.
The course
Net descent of 5,478 ft over 100.2 miles (17,337 up vs 22,815 down). Downhill-leaning, but watch the quads. Climbing is spread evenly, no single section carries the majority of the work.
Your forecast
Form is OPTIMAL (TSB +3.0, CTL 100.0). Projected 22:07 is ~83 min under your 23:30 goal, your goal is conservative for current fitness. 73 days out: still in the build phase.
Hard points
- Mile 2.0–3.0Early-course test
20.6% avg, 28.6% pitch. Planned pace 24:30/mi. Don't blow the engine on the first big climb, there's still 97 miles left.
- Mile 59.0–60.0Mid-race grinder
15.9% avg, 22.4% pitch. Planned pace 28:07/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
- Mile 54.0–55.0Quad-trashing descent
-14.7% avg, 26.6% pitch this late in the race means eccentric loading you can't avoid. Don't let gravity rip you down, controlled, short steps.
- Mile 50.0–51.0Mid-race grinder
12.3% avg, 19.8% pitch. Planned pace 27:24/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
⏵ HOW TO USE · WHY USEFUL
Three sections, the course (objective description), your forecast (what your training history says about how you'll handle it), and hard points (where the climbs/heat/altitude/distance will bite specifically).
Read the hard points twice in race week. They surface the segments where you'll need a deliberate plan ("walk the steep mile from 22.8–24.0; drop your pace 90s/mi for the night descent"). The forecast pulls from your real grade-by-grade pace, so it gets sharper as your training history grows.
⏵ MILE BY MILE
THE SEGMENTS
Per-mile grade, difficulty, and the projected pace + time on this terrain.
⏵ Show all 101 segmentsHide segments
MILEΔ ELEVAVGMAXPACETIMEDIFFICULTY
- MILE0.0–1.0Δ ELEV+133 ftAVG+2.5%MAX+10.8%PACE12:36/miTIME12:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE1.0–2.0Δ ELEV+471 ftAVG+8.9%MAX+26.5%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE2.0–3.0Δ ELEV+1,085 ftAVG+20.6%MAX+28.6%PACE24:30/miTIME24:30DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE3.0–4.0Δ ELEV+418 ftAVG+7.9%MAX+22.5%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE4.0–5.0Δ ELEV−18 ftAVG-0.3%MAX-5.9%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE5.0–6.0Δ ELEV+367 ftAVG+7.0%MAX+15.1%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE6.0–7.0Δ ELEV−223 ftAVG-4.2%MAX-9.0%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE7.0–8.0Δ ELEV−316 ftAVG-6.0%MAX-15.4%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE8.0–9.0Δ ELEV+161 ftAVG+3.0%MAX+10.4%PACE12:36/miTIME12:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE9.0–10.0Δ ELEV−299 ftAVG-5.7%MAX-17.3%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE10.0–11.0Δ ELEV−229 ftAVG-4.3%MAX-11.3%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE11.0–12.0Δ ELEV+289 ftAVG+5.5%MAX+13.6%PACE17:51/miTIME17:51DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE12.0–13.0Δ ELEV−261 ftAVG-4.9%MAX-9.3%PACE8:33/miTIME8:33DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE13.0–14.0Δ ELEV−310 ftAVG-5.9%MAX-16.5%PACE8:34/miTIME8:34DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE14.0–15.0Δ ELEV+162 ftAVG+3.1%MAX+9.2%PACE12:44/miTIME12:44DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE15.0–16.0Δ ELEV−296 ftAVG-5.6%MAX-15.9%PACE8:37/miTIME8:37DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE16.0–17.0Δ ELEV−173 ftAVG-3.3%MAX-7.3%PACE8:38/miTIME8:38DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE17.0–18.0Δ ELEV+391 ftAVG+7.4%MAX+15.5%PACE18:08/miTIME18:08DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE18.0–19.0Δ ELEV−145 ftAVG-2.8%MAX-9.9%PACE8:41/miTIME8:41DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE19.0–20.0Δ ELEV−215 ftAVG-4.1%MAX-15.6%PACE8:42/miTIME8:42DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE20.0–21.0Δ ELEV+181 ftAVG+3.4%MAX+10.0%PACE12:56/miTIME12:56DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE21.0–22.0Δ ELEV−355 ftAVG-6.7%MAX-16.1%PACE8:45/miTIME8:45DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE22.0–23.0Δ ELEV−264 ftAVG-5.0%MAX-9.8%PACE8:47/miTIME8:47DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE23.0–24.0Δ ELEV+266 ftAVG+5.0%MAX+13.4%PACE18:26/miTIME18:26DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE24.0–25.0Δ ELEV−259 ftAVG-4.9%MAX-14.8%PACE8:49/miTIME8:49DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE25.0–26.0Δ ELEV−262 ftAVG-5.0%MAX-17.9%PACE8:51/miTIME8:51DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE26.0–27.0Δ ELEV+144 ftAVG+2.7%MAX+10.1%PACE13:09/miTIME13:09DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE27.0–28.0Δ ELEV−395 ftAVG-7.5%MAX-15.8%PACE8:54/miTIME8:54DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE28.0–29.0Δ ELEV−267 ftAVG-5.1%MAX-10.3%PACE8:56/miTIME8:55DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE29.0–30.0Δ ELEV+293 ftAVG+5.5%MAX+14.0%PACE18:45/miTIME18:45DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE30.0–31.0Δ ELEV−178 ftAVG-3.4%MAX-15.1%PACE8:58/miTIME8:59DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE31.0–32.0Δ ELEV−107 ftAVG-2.0%MAX-16.2%PACE9:00/miTIME9:00DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE32.0–33.0Δ ELEV+273 ftAVG+5.2%MAX+12.4%PACE18:54/miTIME18:54DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE33.0–34.0Δ ELEV−365 ftAVG-6.9%MAX-14.5%PACE9:03/miTIME9:03DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE34.0–35.0Δ ELEV−306 ftAVG-5.8%MAX-11.7%PACE9:05/miTIME9:05DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE35.0–36.0Δ ELEV+181 ftAVG+3.4%MAX+12.4%PACE13:30/miTIME13:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE36.0–37.0Δ ELEV−332 ftAVG-6.3%MAX-19.5%PACE9:08/miTIME9:08DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE37.0–38.0Δ ELEV−267 ftAVG-5.0%MAX-19.6%PACE9:09/miTIME9:09DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE38.0–39.0Δ ELEV+105 ftAVG+2.0%MAX+9.6%PACE10:09/miTIME10:09DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE39.0–40.0Δ ELEV−504 ftAVG-9.5%MAX-16.4%PACE9:13/miTIME9:13DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE40.0–41.0Δ ELEV−398 ftAVG-7.5%MAX-14.2%PACE9:14/miTIME9:14DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE41.0–42.0Δ ELEV+118 ftAVG+2.2%MAX+11.2%PACE13:44/miTIME13:44DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE42.0–43.0Δ ELEV−332 ftAVG-6.3%MAX-18.9%PACE9:17/miTIME9:17DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE43.0–44.0Δ ELEV−167 ftAVG-3.1%MAX-18.0%PACE9:19/miTIME9:19DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE44.0–45.0Δ ELEV+264 ftAVG+5.0%MAX+12.9%PACE19:34/miTIME19:34DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE45.0–46.0Δ ELEV−305 ftAVG-5.8%MAX-12.2%PACE9:22/miTIME9:22DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE46.0–47.0Δ ELEV−93 ftAVG-1.8%MAX+14.9%PACE10:23/miTIME10:23DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE47.0–48.0Δ ELEV+533 ftAVG+10.1%MAX+18.5%PACE27:10/miTIME27:10DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE48.0–49.0Δ ELEV+138 ftAVG+2.6%MAX+12.6%PACE14:01/miTIME14:01DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE49.0–50.0Δ ELEV+320 ftAVG+6.1%MAX+12.6%PACE19:51/miTIME19:51DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE50.0–51.0Δ ELEV+648 ftAVG+12.3%MAX+19.8%PACE27:24/miTIME27:24DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE51.0–52.0Δ ELEV−127 ftAVG-2.4%MAX-7.5%PACE9:32/miTIME9:32DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE52.0–53.0Δ ELEV−301 ftAVG-5.7%MAX-13.7%PACE9:34/miTIME9:34DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE53.0–54.0Δ ELEV−143 ftAVG-2.7%MAX-10.1%PACE9:35/miTIME9:35DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE54.0–55.0Δ ELEV−777 ftAVG-14.7%MAX-26.6%PACE9:37/miTIME9:37DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE55.0–56.0Δ ELEV−578 ftAVG-10.9%MAX-21.6%PACE9:39/miTIME9:39DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE56.0–57.0Δ ELEV−54 ftAVG-1.0%MAX-12.4%PACE10:42/miTIME10:42DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE57.0–58.0Δ ELEV−434 ftAVG-8.2%MAX-15.2%PACE9:42/miTIME9:42DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE58.0–59.0Δ ELEV+83 ftAVG+1.6%MAX+22.1%PACE10:45/miTIME10:45DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE59.0–60.0Δ ELEV+840 ftAVG+15.9%MAX+22.4%PACE28:07/miTIME28:07DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE60.0–61.0Δ ELEV+367 ftAVG+6.9%MAX+21.1%PACE20:29/miTIME20:29DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE61.0–62.0Δ ELEV+313 ftAVG+5.9%MAX+12.2%PACE20:33/miTIME20:32DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE62.0–63.0Δ ELEV+275 ftAVG+5.2%MAX+13.2%PACE20:36/miTIME20:36DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE63.0–64.0Δ ELEV−590 ftAVG-11.2%MAX-15.7%PACE9:52/miTIME9:52DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE64.0–65.0Δ ELEV−624 ftAVG-11.8%MAX-22.7%PACE9:54/miTIME9:54DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE65.0–66.0Δ ELEV−296 ftAVG-5.6%MAX-11.2%PACE9:55/miTIME9:55DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE66.0–67.0Δ ELEV−732 ftAVG-13.9%MAX-23.0%PACE9:57/miTIME9:57DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE67.0–68.0Δ ELEV−246 ftAVG-4.7%MAX-10.7%PACE9:59/miTIME9:59DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE68.0–69.0Δ ELEV+358 ftAVG+6.8%MAX+15.3%PACE20:57/miTIME20:57DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE69.0–70.0Δ ELEV−284 ftAVG-5.4%MAX-12.1%PACE10:02/miTIME10:02DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE70.0–71.0Δ ELEV−203 ftAVG-3.9%MAX-16.2%PACE10:04/miTIME10:04DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE71.0–72.0Δ ELEV+72 ftAVG+1.4%MAX+6.7%PACE11:10/miTIME11:10DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE72.0–73.0Δ ELEV−519 ftAVG-9.8%MAX-18.7%PACE10:07/miTIME10:07DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE73.0–74.0Δ ELEV−255 ftAVG-4.8%MAX-9.3%PACE10:09/miTIME10:09DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE74.0–75.0Δ ELEV+191 ftAVG+3.6%MAX+12.4%PACE15:05/miTIME15:05DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE75.0–76.0Δ ELEV−338 ftAVG-6.4%MAX-15.0%PACE10:12/miTIME10:12DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE76.0–77.0Δ ELEV−130 ftAVG-2.5%MAX-16.8%PACE10:14/miTIME10:14DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE77.0–78.0Δ ELEV+214 ftAVG+4.0%MAX+10.6%PACE15:13/miTIME15:13DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE78.0–79.0Δ ELEV−623 ftAVG-11.8%MAX-22.8%PACE10:18/miTIME10:18DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE79.0–80.0Δ ELEV−48 ftAVG-0.9%MAX+7.3%PACE11:25/miTIME11:25DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE80.0–81.0Δ ELEV+513 ftAVG+9.7%MAX+18.8%PACE21:40/miTIME21:40DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE81.0–82.0Δ ELEV+54 ftAVG+1.0%MAX-9.4%PACE11:29/miTIME11:29DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE82.0–83.0Δ ELEV+289 ftAVG+5.5%MAX+15.8%PACE21:48/miTIME21:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE83.0–84.0Δ ELEV+543 ftAVG+10.3%MAX+16.5%PACE30:05/miTIME30:05DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE84.0–85.0Δ ELEV−146 ftAVG-2.8%MAX-10.3%PACE10:28/miTIME10:28DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE85.0–86.0Δ ELEV+3 ftAVG+0.1%MAX+9.0%PACE11:36/miTIME11:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE86.0–87.0Δ ELEV+271 ftAVG+5.1%MAX+15.7%PACE22:02/miTIME22:02DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE87.0–88.0Δ ELEV−350 ftAVG-6.6%MAX-18.7%PACE10:33/miTIME10:33DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE88.0–89.0Δ ELEV−171 ftAVG-3.2%MAX-18.5%PACE10:35/miTIME10:35DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE89.0–90.0Δ ELEV+55 ftAVG+1.0%MAX+7.6%PACE11:44/miTIME11:44DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE90.0–91.0Δ ELEV−597 ftAVG-11.3%MAX-18.4%PACE10:38/miTIME10:38DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE91.0–92.0Δ ELEV−326 ftAVG-6.2%MAX-12.8%PACE10:40/miTIME10:40DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE92.0–93.0Δ ELEV+103 ftAVG+1.9%MAX+11.9%PACE11:50/miTIME11:50DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE93.0–94.0Δ ELEV−312 ftAVG-5.9%MAX-16.2%PACE10:44/miTIME10:44DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE94.0–95.0Δ ELEV+93 ftAVG+1.8%MAX-14.3%PACE11:54/miTIME11:54DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE95.0–96.0Δ ELEV+428 ftAVG+8.1%MAX+15.2%PACE22:35/miTIME22:35DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE96.0–97.0Δ ELEV−215 ftAVG-4.1%MAX-10.8%PACE10:49/miTIME10:49DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE97.0–98.0Δ ELEV−23 ftAVG-0.5%MAX+14.0%PACE12:00/miTIME12:00DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE98.0–99.0Δ ELEV+139 ftAVG+2.6%MAX+15.6%PACE16:07/miTIME16:07DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE99.0–100.0Δ ELEV−449 ftAVG-8.5%MAX-18.3%PACE10:54/miTIME10:54DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE100.0–100.2Δ ELEV−91 ftAVG-8.6%MAX-13.9%PACE10:55/miTIME2:11DIFFICULTYHard