Sunday, 24 May 2026. 6 weeks ago. Projecting 6:26 on your own pace-by-grade, 1:26 over your 5:00 goal and 1:34 inside the cutoff.
A rough planning window, not a forecast interval.
CUTOFF MARGIN · 1:34 INSIDE
WHERE THE WORK LIVES
- Easy
- 3.0 mi· 10%
- Moderate
- 12.1 mi· 39%
- Hard
- 13.0 mi· 42%
- Severe
- 3.0 mi· 10%
THE LINE FROM ABOVE
THE TERRAIN
HOW THE RACE PROJECTS
CUTOFF MARGIN · 1:34 INSIDE
- Cool6.41:307:30a
- Michigan Bluff13.12:468:46a
- Foresthill21.84:3310:33a
- Cool (return)27.05:4911:49a
THE FRESH-LEG BASELINE
- GRADEDescentRANGE<-2%RUNS30MEDIAN8:30/mi
- GRADEFlat / rollingRANGE-2 to 2%RUNS33MEDIAN9:24/mi
- GRADEEasy climbRANGE2 to 5%RUNS29MEDIAN12:36/mi
- GRADEHard climbRANGE5 to 10%RUNS27MEDIAN17:48/mi
- GRADESevere climbRANGE10%+RUNS21MEDIAN24:30/mi
WHAT TO CARRY, PER HOUR
- Cool0.0–6.4 mi99 g · 0.78 L
- Michigan Bluff6.4–13.1 mi99 g · 0.82 L
- Foresthill13.1–21.8 mi121 g · 1.06 L
- Cool (return)21.8–27.0 mi81 g · 0.63 L
THE READ
Net-flat point-to-point, 5,095 ft up, 5,224 ft down across 31.1 miles, finishing near the same elevation it starts. Climbing is spread evenly, no single section carries the majority of the work.
Form is OPTIMAL (TSB +3.0, CTL 100.0). Projected 6:26 is ~86 min over your 5:00 goal, close that gap with course-specific work, or revise the goal. Race day is here, execute the plan.
- Mile 13.0–14.0Mid-race grinder
13.5% avg, 17.1% pitch. Planned pace 24:38/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
- Mile 18.0–19.0Quad-trashing descent
-13.2% avg, 16.4% pitch this late in the race means eccentric loading you can't avoid. Don't let gravity rip you down, controlled, short steps.
- Mile 25.0–26.0Late-race climb
7.5% avg, 12.0% pitch. By here you'll be ~3% slower than fresh; planned pace is 18:19/mi. Plan to power-hike it rather than blow up trying to run.
- Mile 14.0–15.0Mid-race grinder
8.2% avg, 12.0% pitch. Planned pace 17:56/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
⏵ HOW TO USE · WHY USEFUL
Three sections, the course (objective description), your forecast (what your training history says about how you'll handle it), and hard points (where the climbs/heat/altitude/distance will bite specifically).
Read the hard points twice in race week. They surface the segments where you'll need a deliberate plan ("walk the steep mile from 22.8–24.0; drop your pace 90s/mi for the night descent"). The forecast pulls from your real grade-by-grade pace, so it gets sharper as your training history grows.
THE SEGMENTS
⏵ Show all 32 segmentsHide segments
- MILE0.0–1.0Δ ELEV+32 ftAVG+0.6%MAX+2.9%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE1.0–2.0Δ ELEV+465 ftAVG+8.8%MAX+12.2%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE2.0–3.0Δ ELEV+340 ftAVG+6.5%MAX+8.9%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE3.0–4.0Δ ELEV+263 ftAVG+5.0%MAX+9.8%PACE12:36/miTIME12:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE4.0–5.0Δ ELEV+351 ftAVG+6.6%MAX+9.0%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE5.0–6.0Δ ELEV−76 ftAVG-1.4%MAX+8.0%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE6.0–7.0Δ ELEV−375 ftAVG-7.1%MAX-10.5%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE7.0–8.0Δ ELEV−282 ftAVG-5.3%MAX-10.5%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE8.0–9.0Δ ELEV−489 ftAVG-9.3%MAX-14.0%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE9.0–10.0Δ ELEV−388 ftAVG-7.3%MAX-14.5%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE10.0–11.0Δ ELEV+105 ftAVG+2.0%MAX+8.4%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE11.0–12.0Δ ELEV+208 ftAVG+3.9%MAX+7.8%PACE12:38/miTIME12:38DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE12.0–13.0Δ ELEV+399 ftAVG+7.6%MAX+12.0%PACE17:52/miTIME17:52DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE13.0–14.0Δ ELEV+712 ftAVG+13.5%MAX+17.1%PACE24:38/miTIME24:38DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE14.0–15.0Δ ELEV+433 ftAVG+8.2%MAX+12.0%PACE17:56/miTIME17:56DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE15.0–16.0Δ ELEV+177 ftAVG+3.4%MAX+6.3%PACE12:43/miTIME12:43DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE16.0–17.0Δ ELEV+11 ftAVG+0.2%MAX+2.0%PACE9:30/miTIME9:30DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE17.0–18.0Δ ELEV−537 ftAVG-10.2%MAX-13.2%PACE8:37/miTIME8:37DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE18.0–19.0Δ ELEV−699 ftAVG-13.2%MAX-16.4%PACE8:38/miTIME8:38DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE19.0–20.0Δ ELEV−444 ftAVG-8.4%MAX-11.5%PACE8:39/miTIME8:39DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE20.0–21.0Δ ELEV−468 ftAVG-8.9%MAX-12.8%PACE8:40/miTIME8:40DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE21.0–22.0Δ ELEV−155 ftAVG-2.9%MAX-12.2%PACE8:41/miTIME8:41DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE22.0–23.0Δ ELEV+331 ftAVG+6.3%MAX+10.8%PACE18:12/miTIME18:12DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE23.0–24.0Δ ELEV+229 ftAVG+4.3%MAX+7.2%PACE12:55/miTIME12:55DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE24.0–25.0Δ ELEV+246 ftAVG+4.7%MAX+10.5%PACE12:56/miTIME12:56DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE25.0–26.0Δ ELEV+398 ftAVG+7.5%MAX+12.0%PACE18:19/miTIME18:19DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE26.0–27.0Δ ELEV+8 ftAVG+0.1%MAX-7.8%PACE9:42/miTIME9:42DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE27.0–28.0Δ ELEV−209 ftAVG-4.0%MAX-7.6%PACE8:47/miTIME8:47DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE28.0–29.0Δ ELEV−127 ftAVG-2.4%MAX-6.5%PACE8:48/miTIME8:48DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE29.0–30.0Δ ELEV−370 ftAVG-7.0%MAX-9.7%PACE8:49/miTIME8:49DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE30.0–31.0Δ ELEV−244 ftAVG-4.6%MAX-8.8%PACE8:50/miTIME8:50DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE31.0–31.1Δ ELEV+28 ftAVG+5.3%MAX+5.8%PACE18:31/miTIME1:51DIFFICULTYModerate