Sunday, 26 July 2026. In 3 weeks. Projecting 6:40 on your own pace-by-grade, 1:25 over your 5:15 goal and 2:20 inside the cutoff.
A rough planning window, not a forecast interval.
CUTOFF MARGIN · 2:20 INSIDE
WHERE THE WORK LIVES
- Easy
- 4.1 mi· 13%
- Moderate
- 10.0 mi· 32%
- Hard
- 14.0 mi· 45%
- Severe
- 3.0 mi· 10%
THE LINE FROM ABOVE
THE TERRAIN
HOW THE RACE PROJECTS
CUTOFF MARGIN · 2:20 INSIDE
- Cool6.41:337:33a
- Michigan Bluff13.12:558:55a
- Foresthill21.84:4510:45a
- Cool (return)27.06:0412:04p
THE FRESH-LEG BASELINE
- GRADEDescentRANGE<-2%RUNS30MEDIAN8:30/mi
- GRADEFlat / rollingRANGE-2 to 2%RUNS33MEDIAN9:24/mi
- GRADEEasy climbRANGE2 to 5%RUNS29MEDIAN12:36/mi
- GRADEHard climbRANGE5 to 10%RUNS27MEDIAN17:48/mi
- GRADESevere climbRANGE10%+RUNS21MEDIAN24:30/mi
WHAT TO CARRY, PER HOUR
- Cool0.0–6.4 mi105 g · 0.82 L
- Michigan Bluff6.4–13.1 mi102 g · 0.86 L
- Foresthill13.1–21.8 mi127 g · 1.11 L
- Cool (return)21.8–27.0 mi85 g · 0.66 L
THE READ
Net descent of 284 ft over 31.1 miles (5,033 up vs 5,317 down). Downhill-leaning, but watch the quads. Climbing is spread evenly, no single section carries the majority of the work.
Form is OPTIMAL (TSB +3.0, CTL 100.0). Projected 6:40 is ~85 min over your 5:15 goal, close that gap with course-specific work, or revise the goal. 24 days out: still in the build phase.
- Mile 13.0–14.0Mid-race grinder
12.4% avg, 16.4% pitch. Planned pace 24:38/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
- Mile 18.0–19.0Quad-trashing descent
-13.6% avg, 17.5% pitch this late in the race means eccentric loading you can't avoid. Don't let gravity rip you down, controlled, short steps.
- Mile 14.0–15.0Mid-race grinder
10.3% avg, 12.1% pitch. Planned pace 24:41/mi. The middle is where overcooking shows up, be patient.
- Mile 23.0–24.0Late-race climb
7.0% avg, 12.2% pitch. By here you'll be ~2% slower than fresh; planned pace is 18:15/mi. Plan to power-hike it rather than blow up trying to run.
⏵ HOW TO USE · WHY USEFUL
Three sections, the course (objective description), your forecast (what your training history says about how you'll handle it), and hard points (where the climbs/heat/altitude/distance will bite specifically).
Read the hard points twice in race week. They surface the segments where you'll need a deliberate plan ("walk the steep mile from 22.8–24.0; drop your pace 90s/mi for the night descent"). The forecast pulls from your real grade-by-grade pace, so it gets sharper as your training history grows.
THE SEGMENTS
⏵ Show all 32 segmentsHide segments
- MILE0.0–1.0Δ ELEV+6 ftAVG+0.1%MAX-4.8%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE1.0–2.0Δ ELEV+364 ftAVG+6.9%MAX+12.5%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE2.0–3.0Δ ELEV+430 ftAVG+8.1%MAX+10.1%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE3.0–4.0Δ ELEV+168 ftAVG+3.2%MAX+8.5%PACE12:36/miTIME12:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE4.0–5.0Δ ELEV+279 ftAVG+5.3%MAX+8.0%PACE17:48/miTIME17:48DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE5.0–6.0Δ ELEV+110 ftAVG+2.1%MAX+8.3%PACE12:36/miTIME12:36DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE6.0–7.0Δ ELEV−392 ftAVG-7.4%MAX-12.5%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE7.0–8.0Δ ELEV−360 ftAVG-6.8%MAX-12.7%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE8.0–9.0Δ ELEV−392 ftAVG-7.4%MAX-9.8%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE9.0–10.0Δ ELEV−498 ftAVG-9.4%MAX-13.4%PACE8:30/miTIME8:30DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE10.0–11.0Δ ELEV+16 ftAVG+0.3%MAX+7.4%PACE9:24/miTIME9:24DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE11.0–12.0Δ ELEV+383 ftAVG+7.3%MAX+11.0%PACE17:50/miTIME17:50DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE12.0–13.0Δ ELEV+386 ftAVG+7.3%MAX+9.7%PACE17:52/miTIME17:52DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE13.0–14.0Δ ELEV+657 ftAVG+12.4%MAX+16.4%PACE24:38/miTIME24:38DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE14.0–15.0Δ ELEV+545 ftAVG+10.3%MAX+12.1%PACE24:41/miTIME24:41DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE15.0–16.0Δ ELEV+60 ftAVG+1.1%MAX+6.1%PACE9:29/miTIME9:29DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE16.0–17.0Δ ELEV−91 ftAVG-1.7%MAX-4.6%PACE9:30/miTIME9:30DIFFICULTYEasy
- MILE17.0–18.0Δ ELEV−378 ftAVG-7.2%MAX-13.4%PACE8:37/miTIME8:37DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE18.0–19.0Δ ELEV−717 ftAVG-13.6%MAX-17.5%PACE8:38/miTIME8:38DIFFICULTYSevere
- MILE19.0–20.0Δ ELEV−479 ftAVG-9.1%MAX-16.3%PACE8:39/miTIME8:39DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE20.0–21.0Δ ELEV−339 ftAVG-6.4%MAX-10.1%PACE8:40/miTIME8:40DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE21.0–22.0Δ ELEV−272 ftAVG-5.2%MAX-10.4%PACE8:41/miTIME8:41DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE22.0–23.0Δ ELEV+219 ftAVG+4.2%MAX+11.6%PACE12:53/miTIME12:53DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE23.0–24.0Δ ELEV+369 ftAVG+7.0%MAX+12.2%PACE18:15/miTIME18:15DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE24.0–25.0Δ ELEV+217 ftAVG+4.1%MAX+7.5%PACE12:56/miTIME12:56DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE25.0–26.0Δ ELEV+378 ftAVG+7.2%MAX+10.4%PACE18:19/miTIME18:19DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE26.0–27.0Δ ELEV+156 ftAVG+3.0%MAX+5.6%PACE13:00/miTIME13:00DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE27.0–28.0Δ ELEV−320 ftAVG-6.1%MAX-9.0%PACE8:47/miTIME8:47DIFFICULTYHard
- MILE28.0–29.0Δ ELEV−241 ftAVG-4.6%MAX-8.0%PACE8:48/miTIME8:48DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE29.0–30.0Δ ELEV−249 ftAVG-4.7%MAX-8.2%PACE8:49/miTIME8:49DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE30.0–31.0Δ ELEV−291 ftAVG-5.5%MAX-8.2%PACE8:50/miTIME8:50DIFFICULTYModerate
- MILE31.0–31.1Δ ELEV−9 ftAVG-1.8%MAX-3.2%PACE9:47/miTIME0:59DIFFICULTYEasy